Measurement and forecasting

Papers

1. Design paperDecember 30, 202516 references

   An analytics-to-action pipeline: from event telemetry to governed decisions

   We describe a design that turns commerce event telemetry into governed decisions, using causal estimation, constrained bandits and staged rollout.

2. Design paperOctober 15, 202515 references

   Behavioural cohorts for customer lifetime value prediction: a design

   We describe a design that predicts customer lifetime value from behavioural cohorts, probabilistic purchase models and survival models.

3. Design paperOctober 13, 202513 references

   Real-time analytics for high-velocity commerce: an event-time streaming design

   We describe a streaming analytics design for commerce surges: event-time windows, online change detection, latency budgets and overload handling.

4. Design paperSeptember 14, 202513 references

   Demand forecasting under high volatility: a design for multi-region commerce

   We propose a forecasting design for volatile commerce demand: probabilistic global models, event covariates, reconciled hierarchies and quantile outputs.

5. Design paperJuly 17, 202514 references

   Causal inference for commerce decisions: a design for treatment-effect estimation

   We describe a design for estimating the causal effect of commerce interventions, from potential outcomes to heterogeneous effects and staged experiments.

6. Design paperJuly 5, 202511 references

   A unified metrics framework for comparing commerce performance across regions

   We propose a layered framework that makes commerce KPIs comparable across currencies, funnels and regions, argued from published measurement work.